Foreign exchange markets are being driven by three core themes: global central bank policy, the outlook for relative growth, and politics. World growth is expected to rise from 2.9% in 2013 to 3.5% in 2014 。reflecting a strengthening North American, Latin American, European and emerging Asian ex-China profile; however, global growth remains fragile and an important risk going forward.
Currency-Outlook China：Intraday volatility in the CNY decreased in November, as trading ranges compressed, and the spot rate held in a trendless range. Net fixing interest was close to flat on the month, but remained biased towards appreciation. China’s trade surplus indicates that the external accounts remain CNY-supportive, while there looks to be no political indication of a shift from the status quo for gradual renminbi appreciation.